Hurricane ‘Flossie’: Path, Category, and Affected States Due to Rainfall

Tropical storm Flossie continues its movement across the Pacific Ocean and is expected to intensify into a category 1 hurricane by Monday night. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has stated that the system continues to strengthen and will cause heavy rainfall along the coast of Guerrero, and intense rainfall in the states of Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, and Oaxaca. Additionally, very strong winds and high waves are anticipated along the coasts of these regions.

The trajectory of Flossie

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has announced that tropical storm Flossie will move near the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima on Monday, June 30. The weather system has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 120 kilometers per hour, moving northwest at 19 kilometers per hour.

At 3:00 PM on Monday (central Mexico time), Flossie was approximately 270 kilometers southwest of Zihuatanejo, in the state of Guerrero, and 320 km south-southeast of Manzanillo, Colima.

During Monday night, Flossie will become a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and on Tuesday it will move parallel to the coasts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, causing very heavy to intense rainfall in those states. It will also bring heavy rainfall to Sinaloa and Nayarit, along with very strong winds and high waves in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco.

By Wednesday, July 2, hurricane Flossie could reach category 2 while continuing its movement parallel to the coasts of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, heading towards Baja California Sur, where it will cause heavy rainfall and intense winds in Sinaloa. The SMN forecast indicates that Flossie will not make landfall.

Between Thursday and Friday, Flossie will downgrade to a tropical storm and will be located less than 300 kilometers southwest of Baja California Sur, where rainfall will continue. Finally, Flossie will move to a region in the Pacific where winds and temperatures will weaken its system.

Will Flossie make landfall as a hurricane?

Although its exact trajectory is still under watch, so far the SMN does not forecast that hurricane Flossie will make landfall. However, its direct impact will depend on its proximity to Mexican coasts in the coming hours. Flossie will move northwest, parallel to the coasts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco.

Areas under alert and expected effects

The National Water Commission (Conagua) has announced a precautionary zone for the effects of the weather system, covering from Punta San Telmo in Michoacán to Playa Pérula in the state of Jalisco. The monitoring has been extended to other areas, from Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, to the east of Punta San Telmo; and from the north of Playa Pérula to Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco.

The cloud bands and moisture sweep from Flossie are already affecting several states, and the following impacts are expected:

• Torrential rains on the coast of Guerrero
• Intense rains in Colima, the south and coast of Michoacán, the south and west of Jalisco, and the north and southwest of Oaxaca
• Winds of 60 to 80 kilometers per hour, with gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour on the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
• Waves of 5 to 6 meters high in Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
• Waves of 2.5 to 3.5 meters high in Oaxaca and Chiapas

Conagua warns that the forecasted rains may be accompanied by electrical discharges and hail. In states like Tlaxcala, Morelos, Yucatán, and Mexico City, showers are expected from Monday through Friday.

Additionally, heavy rains are anticipated throughout the week in the north, center, east, and southeast of the country due to a low-pressure channel and the remnants of tropical storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico.

Possible impacts and recommendations

The impact of Flossie could cause landslides, overflowing rivers and streams, as well as flooding in low-lying areas of the affected states. Authorities have urged the public to heed warnings from the National Meteorological Service, the National Water Commission, and to follow recommendations from Civil Protection.

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