Italian opposition fails in its effort to destabilize Meloni with a referendum.

The Italian center-left has failed in its attempt to shake, or in its best dreams even topple, the government of Giorgia Meloni, with a significant mobilization at the polls, a strong signal that it no longer has support from the streets. The weapon of the Democratic Party (PD) led by Elly Schlein and the Five Star Movement (M5S) of Giuseppe Conte was a referendum held on Sunday and Monday, with polling stations closing at three in the afternoon. Despite their campaigning, the referendum fell far short of the required quorum of 50% of the electorate, with only 30.6% of Italians called to the polls actually voting.

The consultation posed five questions on very leftist issues, supported by the main union, CGIL, but not by the other two major unions: four were about labor issues, such as layoffs, compensation, and workplace safety; and a fifth asked to reduce the number of years of residency required for a foreigner to obtain citizenship from five to ten. However, most Italians chose to go to the beach, as suggested by the government, which now claims the result as a victory.

“The opposition wanted to turn five referendums into a referendum on the Meloni government. The result seems very clear: the government emerges stronger and the left weaker,” summarized Giovanbattista Fazzolari, deputy secretary of the presidency of the Executive. Meanwhile, CGIL’s general secretary, Maurizio Landini, who promoted the consultation, admitted defeat after having predicted a year ago that 25 million Italians would go to the polls “to change this country and put work at the center.” Italy does not have a high unemployment problem like Spain, currently at 6%, but union battles focus on establishing a minimum wage, which does not exist, and overcoming job insecurity.

No sign of a shift in cycles

For the opposition, this is a clear message that a cycle change is not in sight and they must continue to wait for the general elections scheduled for 2027. Polls continue to show far-right Giorgia Meloni and her coalition with La Liga and Forza Italia as the majority force. The opposition is now looking to the next test, the regional elections in October and November in five major regions (Campania, Apulia, Tuscany, Marches, and Veneto), hoping to achieve a 4-1 victory in their favor.

In any case, the opposition has tried to view things differently, noting that the 15 million voters who participated in the referendum are more than the 12.4 million votes the Meloni coalition received in 2022. Nevertheless, this is just a consolation and a reality check.

The PD of Elly Schlein and the M5S of former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the two main parties, are aware that they lost the 2022 elections for not having participated in coalition and are in a long process of building a united front. They are leaning further left, in alliance with the green and far-left party (AVS), at the expense of the two centrist formations of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda.

Major demonstration for Gaza

This weekend, this budding alliance of PD, M5S, and AVS had two important events to demonstrate strength and unity. One was on Saturday, a large demonstration in Rome in support of Gaza and against Israel, which gathered 300,000 people, according to the organizers, though the police estimated it at 50,000. It was considered a successful expression of public response on the streets, but the real challenge was the referendum, posed as a gamble against the government.

However, referendums can be tricky. Italy is a country where many are held—77 to abolish laws since 1974, triggered by collecting half a million signatures or a common proposal from five regional governments—and with increasing abstention, surpassing the quorum becomes difficult: it has only happened twice in 30 years. The last one was in 2020, concerning the constitutional reform to reduce the number of parliamentarians by a third, and one must go back to 2011 to find the previous referendum amending laws. That was about the privatization of water, the return of nuclear power plants, and a law that favored then-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in his legal battles. At that time, it anticipated the political shift that led to the fall of the billionaire’s government five months later. Today, that does not seem to be the case.

Another drawback is that, except for the question about access to nationality, the other four labor-related questions were more complex and technical. Yet the fact that the first question also failed to attract interest has been music to the ears of La Liga: “Citizenship is not a gift,” proclaimed its leader, Matteo Salvini.

Moreover, two of the labor rights questions sought to amend laws from a government of the PD itself, the one led by Matteo Renzi (2014-2016), in a previous life of the party that was more centrist and reformist, as it is now much further left. In fact, Renzi no longer belongs to the party; he has his own, Italia Viva.

In this regard, part of the PD’s own voters did not view this favorably. Indeed, among the first to question the initiative this afternoon were representatives of the PD’s critical minority. “A deep, serious, avoidable defeat. Unfortunately, a huge gift to Giorgia Meloni and the right,” said PD MEP Pina Picierno.

The referendum, however, may have consequences. The government is already putting forth the idea that it is absurd to spend so much money on consultations that lead nowhere, and that perhaps the requirements for organizing them should be tightened. For instance, raising the required number of signatures from half a million to one million. It is argued that now support collection is easier since digital collection has been allowed for a year, which could lead to a spike in referendums. Conversely, some politicians and analysts propose lowering the quorum to, say, 40%, as the rule was designed in the post-war era when participation was always very high.