Political wait and see, but without stopping pedaling. This observation is shared by PSOE, Sumar, and government partners. Negotiations are ongoing in all areas, but they could stop at any moment if evidence emerges that the corruption cases affecting José Luis Ábalos and Santos Cerdán extend to other figures or if there are signs of possible irregular financing of PSOE.
Nationalist and independentist parties are giving the government breathing space by softening their deadlines and demands. ERC, as tough a negotiator as it is understanding of the executive’s situation, is not rushing to define the formulas that will lead to the approval of a unique financing system for Catalonia. Junts is starting to recover from the shock caused by Cerdán’s indictment ― the main socialist negotiator with Puigdemont’s party ― and they are waiting for PSOE to appoint a figure to try to close all pending issues. Conversations continue at a lower level with the first vice president and finance minister, María Jesús Montero, and the minister of presidency and justice, Félix Bolaños.
Puigdemont’s party has made it clear to the socialists that the new interlocutor cannot be a member of the PSC. This is Junts’ demand. The neoconvergents face substantial challenges in accepting that the PSC governs Catalonia. The negotiations are with the government, and therefore, they try to keep as far away as possible from the Catalan socialists and their president, Salvador Illa. ERC also lacks political sympathy for the Catalan socialists, their main rival for the votes of left-leaning sectors. Between these two independentist political forces, the government maintains a difficult balance: to negotiate with ERC without neglecting Junts. The latter constantly monitors the relationship and agreements of the party led by Oriol Junqueras with the executive.
The upcoming socialist federal committee on Saturday will produce a new secretary of organization, who does not necessarily have to replace Santos Cerdán in negotiations with Junts. Montero and Bolaños will continue to handle issues with ERC. Among the republicans, there is a growing impression that Montero, as the leader of the Andalusian socialists and candidate for the presidency of the Junta de Andalucía, does not find it easy to negotiate the ownership of Catalonia’s financing. Just the proposal puts many autonomous communities on alert, especially those governed by the PP. The Andalusian president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, can strengthen his position against Montero simply by arguing that the candidate for president of Andalusia is negotiating “the disruption of equality.” Republicans wonder if she is the best option to lead the negotiation with Catalonia. This is a concern that the government and Montero herself do not currently share.
The last model of autonomous financing was approved in 2009 ― with Zapatero in government ― and expired in 2014. Rajoy never addressed the approval of a new model, which Pedro Sánchez has also been unable to achieve.
Before contemplating the opening of negotiations, the president of the government has gauged with his partners the essential: whether they want the legislature to continue. Most favor this as long as no new irregularities appear. The government insists that they fear nothing regarding corruption, but they are sure that uncomfortable situations lie ahead with the possible publication of new audio recordings and conversations. Within PSOE, there are concerns that recordings between José Luis Ábalos and the president of the government discussing partners, figures, nationalist and independentist parties, and even members of their own party may be made public, but they dismiss anything related to bribes or payments.