The Left in Chile Selects Its Presidential Candidate to Take on a Strong Right-Wing Opposition

Chile begins a new stage in the 2025 presidential campaign this Sunday: 15.4 million voters, both in the country and abroad, are called to participate in the left-wing primary, which will choose from four options the single candidate who will represent them against the right in the first round on November 16. The contest will be between the two strong contenders: social democrat Carolina Tohá and communist Jeannette Jara, both former ministers in Gabriel Boric’s government. The outcome of the left-wing primary will shape the coalition’s identity and kickstart the main phase of the race to La Moneda in March 2026, when the current administration ends. In this electoral race, the right remains the favorite and appears unstoppable, according to polls and trends, although it competes divided: Evelyn Matthei (from the traditional right aligned in the Chile Vamos coalition), José Antonio Kast (from the conservative right of the Republican Party), and Johannes Kaiser (from the far-right Libertarian Party).

This primary is voluntary, making the turnout on a cold winter Sunday uncertain. There are some parameters: in 2021, when Boric himself faced communist Daniel Jadue in a primary, 1.7 million people voted. But there were only two parties and two candidates. This time, there are eight parties, four candidates, and one coalition, Unity for Chile. Therefore, if the turnout does not approach the number from four years ago, it will show the government’s coalition’s weakness and indicate that the left has failed to mobilize its social base. With mandatory voting in place since 2022 for general elections, there are some signals that could encourage people: the mistaken belief that these primaries are mandatory, the established habit of voting among citizens, and the high level of competition in recent weeks between the strong candidates, Tohá and Jara.

There are two other candidates: deputies Gonzalo Winter, from Boric’s Broad Front – a close friend of the president – and Jaime Mulet, from the small party Green Social Regionalist Federation (FRVS). Neither has real chances, according to public polls allowed up to 15 days before this election.

Tohá and Jara represent very different visions of the role of the left in 2025 and the needs of a country like Chile, which has been economically stagnant for over a decade and faces urgent challenges such as the security crisis. Although both were key ministers during Boric’s government – Tohá as Interior Minister and Jara as Labor Minister – they distinctly represent the two factions within the ruling coalition. Tohá, a 60-year-old political scientist who has played key roles since the return to democracy (having been a deputy, minister, mayor, and president of her center-left party, the PPD), embodies the attempt to revitalize social democracy once represented by figures like President Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006), despite the challenges of a country and a world that have changed significantly over half a century. Jara, meanwhile, arrives at this primary as the representative of the Communist Party, which has steadily gained ground in Chilean institutions since 2010, having previously opposed democratic transition governments.

In this primary campaign, both candidates have fundamental differences regarding the relationship between the state and the market, economic growth, crime management, foreign relations, and control of irregular immigration. Both carry the burden of being part of a government anchored at a 30% popularity rate, which has not been able to broaden its support base. At a time when public opinion seems to favor a change in governance and a figure with authority, both have navigated the narrow path of loyalty to Boric while maintaining the necessary distance to offer a different proposal. Tohá faces a particularly challenging situation because, as Interior Minister since September 2022, she has been tasked with combating crime. Jara, in turn, as Labor Minister has been the face of good news, such as pension reform and laws establishing a maximum 40-hour workweek.

Tohá began this race with an advantage as an experienced figure known to Chileans, having been in the public scene for 40 years, starting as a university student during the last years of the dictatorship. Jara, meanwhile – a 51-year-old public administrator, lawyer, and master’s in public management – has gained ground partly due to her charismatic personality and a campaign in which she has distanced herself from the old symbols of the Chilean Communist Party (where she has been a member since age 14). It is a political force defined as Marxist-Leninist and has not eliminated the concept of the dictatorship of the proletariat from its doctrine. The Communist Party has international commitments with regimes in Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea, and its president participated in April in the II International Antifascist Forum held in Moscow, Russia.

One of the main unknowns in this primary, along with participation, relates to the percentage of votes that the winning candidate will receive and the margin over the second place. Within the ruling coalition, there are questions about whether, after these elections, the political sector can remain united with so much fervor, and if the winner can indeed present a strong showing in the actual presidential race against the right. The deadline for submitting candidacies for the first-round elections on November 16 is August 18, and no one dares to rule out that, depending on what happens this Sunday, an alternative presidential candidacy from the left may emerge. There is another risk: that the winner may not be practically supported by the entire political sector. In this campaign, the significant distances among the political projects uniting under the term ruling coalition have been quite apparent.

To face the three right factions that will arrive divided for the first round in November – the right will not hold primaries – the most competitive candidate is Tohá. This has been leveraged by her campaign in recent weeks. If Jara wins, recent polls indicate that it may even be possible for two right candidates, Kast and Matthei, to progress to the second round. If the communist candidate were to win, then her supporters’ main challenge would be to make her candidacy viable, which would inevitably require her to resign from the Communist Party. This is what those at Boric’s La Moneda see, as he has so far played a non-prominent role in the disputes within the parties that support him.