United States Breaks Off Cooperation with Mexico

The good efforts and calm demeanor of President Claudia Sheinbaum have been overlooked by the Trump administration.

Statements and actions from the United States government this week are blatant indications of Washington’s disdain for Mexico’s request to establish an equal partnership, collaboration without subordination. Uncle Sam disregards its southern neighbor.

Trump has not honored his public words of praise for President Sheinbaum. The White House acted with strict unilateralism this week by launching a strike in the form of accusations against three Mexican financial institutions for their alleged ties to drug cartels.

The brokerage firm Vector, CIBanco, and Intercam were pointed out on Wednesday by the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) for participating in money laundering schemes or transactions with criminal groups.

The accusation turned the entire banking system of Mexico and Sheinbaum’s government upside down.

In financial terms, the Treasury Department was forced to intervene with the three institutions after noticing capitalization issues within those companies, which each denied any wrongdoing or illegal activity.

Although the volume represented by these institutions is less than 1% of the system, according to the Treasury, it seems unlikely to jeopardize the entire Mexican banking sector, which consists of about fifty firms; however, the risk is far from being eliminated.

Because the accusation opened Pandora’s box, and who can bet that the U.S. will not continue its assault on Mexican banking? Along with the uncertainty about the fate of the three accused, there is another question exploring who else is in FinCEN’s sights.

And there is no way to know if Sheinbaum can respond to the Mexican banking sector and the public’s uncertainty about what else the Treasury Department is plotting. The president and the Treasury have complained since Wednesday that they have not had access to the evidence regarding the accusations.

That is ground zero for Trump’s strike against Mexico.

Sheinbaum’s government appears out of place because the United States is bargaining away the evidentiary clues for such a strong accusation. While she is right to claim disdain, it does not remedy the uncertainty, and, on the contrary, sows doubts about the true nature of her relationship with Trump.

Given the long-standing distrust Washington has in Mexican justice institutions, which no one on either side of the border would bet their life on, it will not be easy for the president to make the case that Trump respects her.

The U.S. will be watching closely to see what Mexican authorities do with the three accused financial institutions. Just because the Americans are dismissive of the evidence does not mean they will refrain from judging what Mexico does or does not do in this case.

If Sheinbaum’s aim with the U.S. was a macro agreement, a negotiation linking trade, migration, and security, this week they made clear, through actions and words, that at least in the latter topic, they do not trust her government.

To eliminate any doubt, just hours after the FinCEN accusation was announced, U.S. Attorney Pamela Bondi labeled Mexico as an “adversary” and preferred to publicly evade the question of whether Sheinbaum was cooperating satisfactorily on security matters.

A “one-two” that knocks down Mexico’s offer of dialogue on equal terms. Strikes that force the nation to accept that the Trump administration does not refrain from its combative nature and views us, in Bondi’s words, as they did Iran, which they bombed days ago.

This interventionism, disguised as auditing, complicates the economic outlook for Sheinbaum (the uncertainty in finances did not need further turbulence), but it is in the political realm where she may find the problem difficult to digest.

The FinCEN accusation has a specific target. The U.S. is using its new laws aimed at combating fentanyl as a weapon to discredit Mexico, its banking system, and its institutions. Because here Washington has opened a front not only against the cartels.

The government is on the stand, suspicious due to its inability to detect what the Treasury accuses: that Mexican banks serve the cartels. Sheinbaum is right to demand evidence, but the U.S. does not grant the accused and her government a presumption of innocence.

Things get even more tangled for Claudia because her government and that of her predecessor are on trial, as one of the accused entities is linked to a partner in the Morena cause, and life’s surprises bring us to Genaro García Luna, involved in the scheme.

If several of the shady dealings occurred during Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, it is impossible not to question what the former president and his collaborators knew, particularly Rogelio Ramírez de la O, Secretary of the Treasury in both administrations.

If Vector is owned by Alfonso Romo, the head of AMLO’s office during the first two years of his government and a person connected to the tabasqueño for years, suspicion is natural: Was the Morena government particularly lax in overseeing that brokerage firm?

And if Morena has utilized the trial against García Luna, a process in which Andrés Manuel and Claudia never questioned the accusations from the U.S., however hearsay they might have been, today the official party will contort itself to reject as false what it once accepted without scrutiny.

Months ago, rumors surfaced in Mexico about a U.S. crackdown on public figures. Various rumors circulated regarding the existence of a list of alleged narco-politicians. The (as of today) mini-list from FinCEN does not fall short in terms of impact.

The accused institutions are generally well-known, and Poncho Romo in particular.

And beyond what happens with those three institutions, the banking system is obliged to review each of its operations. Especially when the Mexican government claims it has not detected, in the case of Vector, Intercam, and CIBanco, anything other than minor irregularities.

It does not help Sheinbaum that the heads of organizations that should embody regulatory capacity, such as the National Banking and Securities Commission and the Financial Intelligence Unit, are people not recognized for their technical credentials or their standing with the presidential administration.

In those two institutions, Sheinbaum inherited personnel from López Obrador. People who will be under scrutiny because they did not see what the U.S. accuses, and as if that weren’t enough, while the government claims not to have found irregularities, the press is already revealing more clues regarding the matter.

To top it off, the way Washington acted will inflame the anti-American sentiment within Morena. When the president needed her allies not to taint her relationship with Trump, the U.S. flaunted arrogance and even hypocrisy.

Because there is, of course, basis for the nationalist complaint that whenever it comes to discussing drug trafficking and its harmful effects, Uncle Sam sees the speck in someone else’s eye and not the billions of drug-trafficked dollars that circulate in its financial system.

But there is no doubt that Morena will use this case to play the victim. And with that, the atmosphere will fill with noise and pressure on Claudia to confront Washington.

Tensions in the Middle East prevented the president from meeting with Trump in Alberta, Canada, two weeks ago during the G-7 meeting, to which she was invited. We will never know if she could have at least addressed, in terms of form, how the U.S. would proceed against Vector, Intercam, and CIBanco.

If Trump is a good negotiator, he should know that the FinCEN issue leaves Sheinbaum with practically no room to save face. And if he insists on treating her poorly, he will be giving oxygen to those in Morena who exploit their anti-American sentiments as their best currency.

The United States does not want to reciprocate the quality of relationship Sheinbaum has proposed. If they undermine the authority of one who has managed to concede without capitulating, dissent without losing composure, they can encourage a tension within Sheinbaum’s group against her that is not beneficial for anyone.